"WITH you in charge, I am at ease,” Mao Zedong is supposed to have told his successor, Hua Guofeng. It proved a disastrous choice. Mr Hua lasted a couple of years before being toppled in 1978. A decade later succession plans once again unravelled spectacularly, against a backdrop of pro-democracy unrest. Only once, eight years ago, has China’s Communist Party managed a smooth transfer of power—to Hu Jintao. Now a new transition is under way. The world should be nervous about it for two reasons: the unknown character of China’s next leader; and the brittle nature of a regime that is far less monolithic and assured than many foreigners assume.

相信毛泽东对他的接班人华国锋说过：“你办事，我放心”。然事实证明，让华接班是一个极糟的选择。华先生的任期持续了两年，1978年以下台告终。十年后，在民运动乱的背景下，接班计划又一次触目惊心地搁浅了。中国共产党唯一的一次权力平稳交接是在八年前——即交至胡锦涛那一次。眼下，一场新的权力过渡已经启航。世界对此应当感到担心，原因有二：一是担心对下任中国领导人秉性的知之甚少，二是担心中国政权的脆弱性。中国的政权远没有外国人所想象的那么铁板一块、自信满满。

The man ordained to take over Mr Hu’s twin roles as party chief in 2012 and president the following year is hardly a household name. On October 18th Vice-President Xi Jinping was given a new job as vice-chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, which Mr Hu heads. This is a position for leaders-in-waiting. The portly son of one of Communist China’s founders, little known to the outside world until a few years ago, Mr Xi is preparing to take the helm of a country with the world’s second-biggest economy and its biggest armed forces—and which is in the midst of wrenching social change.

定为接班人的这个人并不广为人知，此人将接任胡锦涛的两项职务，即于2012年接任党中央总书记，2013年接任国家主席。10月18日，国家副主席习近平得到了一个中央军委副主席（主席是胡锦涛）的新职务。这个职务相当于接班人地位。身材壮硕的习近平，是一位共产主义中国的创始人的儿子，几年前，外界对他才有了些许了解。他正准备掌舵世界第二大经济体中国和全球最大的武装部队——而中国，正身处艰难的社会变革之中。

Quite how he has risen so high in a party that, for all its growing engagement with the world, remains deeply secretive, is unclear. Mr Xi’s appointment was eerily similar to the recent anointing of Kim Jong Un in North Korea: he too was made vice-chairman of a military commission after a closed-door party conclave, without public explanation. China’s leaders at least offered a sentence on Mr Xi’s appointment, albeit at the end of an arid 4,600-character communiqué after the fifth party congress (see article).

在一个虽跟世界接触日多但仍显神秘的政党里，习近平何以在一次党内会议上升至如此高位，仍是不明就里。对习的任命与最近朝鲜对金正恩的晋升，诡异相似：金也是在一次党的秘密会议后，当上了军委副委员长，对公众没有任何说明。中国的领袖们至少对习先生的任命用一句话提及，尽管这句话出现在五中全会4,600字的枯燥公报的结束部分。

On the positive side, Mr Xi has held some big posts in the most economically dynamic and globally integrated parts of the country: the coastal provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang as well as, briefly, Shanghai. He is a relatively cosmopolitan figure. His wife is a popular singer. But it is impossible to assess how well qualified he is to run the country or how assured his succession is. On the face of it, one engineer whose father was denounced during the Cultural Revolution is handing over to another. But Mr Xi is a relative newcomer to the inner circle; he has not served as long as Mr Hu had in 2002. There are plenty in the party who resent the rise to power of well-connected “princelings” like Mr Xi. A two-year transition will be a test.

以乐观角度视之，习近平在中国最富经济活力、最具开放性的地区任过某些要职：如沿海省份的福建、浙江及短期任职的上海。相对而言，他具有全球眼光。习的妻子是一位颇受欢迎的歌唱家。但是，欲评估他有多强的能力管理中国，或者说他有多大的把握成功接班，尚不大可能。表面看来，一位其父在文革中受到迫害的学理工的在向另一位其父也在文革中受到迫害的学理工的交接权力。相对而言，在共产党核心，习算是个新人：同2002年的接班的胡锦涛相比，习任职不长；党内有许多人不满像习这种有“太子党”血统的人的晋升。两年的过渡期，对习是个考验。

All this one day will be yours

总有一天，整个江山都会是习哥的

All the same, it is the immensity of the task, not the obscurity of the man, that should make the world nervous. For all their outward expressions of unity, there are signs of disagreement among Chinese leaders over what the country’s priorities should be—both on the economy and on political reform.

尽管如此，让世界不安的应该是中国新主席的责任的巨大，而不是新主席不为人知的个性特征。尽管中国共产党人表面团结如一，但有迹象表明：中国的领导人对于中国的改革（既在经济改革方面，也在政治改革方面）应该优先解决哪些问题存在分歧。

The economy is sprinting along by Western standards, but China faces a hard adjustment to wean itself off excessive investment and exports in favour of more reliance on consumption. The communiqué unveiled guidelines for a new five-year economic plan (see article). This calls for a more sustainable pace of growth, with wage-earners getting a bigger share of the national income. This would be good for China and the world, helping to narrow the trade surplus that annoys America so much. But the change will not be painless. Exporters fear business will suffer if wages soar or the yuan rises fast. Powerful state-owned enterprises, used to cheap credit, land and energy, will resist threats to these privileges.

按照西方标准，中国经济发展迅猛，但中国面临一项艰难的调整——即摆脱依靠过度投资和出口的经济增长模式，转向依靠消费的增长模式。已公之于众的五中全会公报就新的五年计划提出了指导性方针。这个方针要求，让劳动者更多地分享国家建设的成果，增长的速度应当更具有可持续性。这对中国、对世界都是好事，也大大缩小了让美国气恼的中方贸易顺差。但是，这种调整不会没有阵痛。出口商们担心，如果工资增长或人民币升值太快，其生意将会受损。习惯了低息借贷、廉价土地和能源的强大国企，会阻止对其已享特权形成的威胁。

As for political reform, Chinese leaders have talked about democracy for the past 30 years, but done little. Rapid growth and the spread of the internet and mobile phones have enabled Chinese citizens to communicate, vent their grievances and pursue their dreams more freely than before, so long as they do not attack the party. But some are now demanding more say in how the country is run. In the past few weeks China’s more liberal newspapers have enthused about calls by the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, for “political reform”. Conservative newspapers have censored them.

就政治改革而言，中国领导人在过去三十年里一直都在谈论民主，但几无实际行动。互联网和手机的迅速普及，使中国人能够比过去更加自由地表达意见，只要不攻击共产党，尽可发泄怨恨、追逐梦想。但是，当下有一些人要求在如何治理国家上有更多的话语权。最近几周，中国的开明报纸对温家宝总理关于“政治改革”的呼吁甚是热心。而保守报纸则删剪温的呼吁。

There is next to no chance of the cautious Mr Hu bringing in big reforms before he steps down. This week’s communiqué hailed the “political advantages of China’s socialist system” and mentioned political reform only briefly, saying—as Chinese leaders so often do—that it will require “vigorous yet steady” effort. Even Mr Wen, who will step down at the same time as Mr Hu, has wanted to move at glacial speed.

行事审慎的胡主席卸任前大兴改革风，几无可能。本周的五中全会公报力赞“中国社会主义制度的政治优势”，而对政治改革则是简短提及（与中国领导人的一贯态度一脉相承）——公报说：政治体制改革应“积极稳妥”地推进。即便是会与胡锦涛同期卸任的温家宝总理，也是希望慢慢行动。

Expect paranoia and you may be pleasantly surprised

如你把中国当作一个妄想症患者，那么你会有惊喜

Might Mr Xi speed things up? There is no shortage of conservatives arguing for caution, but there is also a pragmatic argument for change: China’s economic gains could be jeopardised by a failure to loosen the party’s hold. Explosions of public discontent, fuelled by resentment of government callousness towards ordinary citizens, are becoming increasingly common in villages, towns and cities across the country. The (admittedly patchy) official data show a more than tenfold increase in the annual number of large protests and disturbances since 1993, with more than 90,000 cases reported in each of the past four years. In the past China’s leaders have relied on growth to secure social stability. If and when a more serious slowdown strikes, popular grumbles could increase.

习近平会加快改革步伐吗？虽不乏主张谨慎行事的保守派，但亦有支持改革的务实家：放松党的控制这一环节不成功，会危及中国的经济增长。民怨沸腾在中国的农村、城镇、城市正变得日益普遍，那民怨是由民众对政府的怨恨所充斥，它来自政府对平民百姓的麻木不仁。据不完整的官方数据显示，1993年来，每年的大型抗议和骚乱人数增长了十倍以上，过去四年，每年的上报案件超过90,000例。在过去，中国领导人一直依赖经济增长确保社会稳定。如果，今后经济出现更严重的下滑，民愤就会升级。

The right path for Mr Xi should be clear: relax the party’s grip on dissent, lift its shroud of secrecy and make vital economic reforms. But the rest of the world would be unwise to assume that reason will prevail. In times of uncertainty, the regime is wont to appeal to nationalist sentiment. Large anti-Japanese protests erupted during the latest party meeting. America and the West have also been subjected to tongue-lashings. The party meeting called on officials to strengthen “the country’s comprehensive national power”.

习近平的正确之路应该是明晰的：放松对持不同政见者的管制，拉开共产党的秘密帷幕，进行富于生机的经济改革。但是，世界各国那种臆断中国理性将占上风的看法，也许本身就是非理性的。在此风云变幻之际，中国习惯于借助民族主义情绪。在最近的中共十七届五中全会召开期间，爆发了大规模的反日抗议活动。美国和西方国家也同样受到了谴责。五中全会号召，全体共产党员要为增强“国家的综合实力”而奋斗。

Too many Westerners, including those urging trade sanctions over the yuan, assume that they are dealing with a self-confident, rational power that has come of age. Think instead of a paranoid, introspective imperial court, already struggling to keep up with its subjects and now embarking on a slightly awkward succession—and you may be less disappointed.

许多西方人，包括那些敦促对人民币实行贸易制裁的人，都想当然地认为他们是在与一个自信自持、理智清醒的成熟强国打交道、做生意。你想像一下，把中国视作一个妄想症患者，一个挣扎着要继续统治其臣民的内省的王朝。而目前它正着手进行一项略微不灵的权力交接——那么，或许你的失望就更少了。